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Old 09-30-2020, 04:35 PM   #881
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make me more than 1.2% safely

just like dow/nasdaq?
Time frame?
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Old 09-30-2020, 04:37 PM   #882
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5 years?
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Old 09-30-2020, 04:43 PM   #883
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5 years?
S and P has averaged 10% a year historically. Always risk but i'd take that chance.
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Old 10-07-2020, 02:50 PM   #884
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The market is just drunk at this point
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Old 10-07-2020, 02:52 PM   #885
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The market is just drunk at this point
because a bunch of idiots are overreacting to anything Trump says.
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Old 10-07-2020, 02:54 PM   #886
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The markets should be celebrating the fact that hes on his way out.
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Old 10-07-2020, 03:40 PM   #887
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The markets should be celebrating the fact that hes on his way out.
At this point they are pretty solidly projecting his win.
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Old 10-07-2020, 05:28 PM   #888
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At this point they are pretty solidly projecting his win.
For sure. The senate is probably more of a concern for the rich.
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Old 10-07-2020, 05:34 PM   #889
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At this point they are pretty solidly projecting his win.
who is the he you are referring to?
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Old 10-07-2020, 05:52 PM   #890
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who is the he you are referring to?
Trumpers

Generally speaking the markets hate a transition of power, and have something like an 84% success rate at determining the outcome of the election. I believe the stat is if the markets are down in the 3 months leading up to an election they anticipate a party change.

But you combine that along with the markets reacting positively after the debate, and Trump's "recovery" and to me it seems like they expect him to win.

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Old 10-07-2020, 06:41 PM   #891
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The colts/bears game already told me the winner of the election
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Old 10-07-2020, 06:52 PM   #892
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it seems like they expect him to win.
which is interesting because a lot of polling and people on the ground are getting the impression that it's the other way around.
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Old 10-07-2020, 06:54 PM   #893
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Quote:
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which is interesting because a lot of polling and people on the ground are getting the impression that it's the other way around.
Polling was wrong last time around, while if you looked industrials were up leading to the election.
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Old 10-07-2020, 07:31 PM   #894
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not what I wanted to hear Cain!
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Old 10-07-2020, 07:38 PM   #895
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Polling was wrong last time around, while if you looked industrials were up leading to the election.
It really wasn't (the polling), but it was also *vastly* tighter at this point (it also seems silly to believe that no one learned anything about polling in the 4 years since, especially after 2018).

I wouldn't disagree with your market knowledge, but it sure seems likely the pricing is on a Biden win, at this point:

https://www.businessinsider.com/stoc...-sachs-2020-10
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Old 10-07-2020, 08:26 PM   #896
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trust hedge fund information or polls where people call randoms and trust their non-committal answer
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Old 10-07-2020, 10:29 PM   #897
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buy regeneron $REGN
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Old 10-08-2020, 02:48 PM   #898
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It really wasn't (the polling), but it was also *vastly* tighter at this point (it also seems silly to believe that no one learned anything about polling in the 4 years since, especially after 2018).

I wouldn't disagree with your market knowledge, but it sure seems likely the pricing is on a Biden win, at this point:

https://www.businessinsider.com/stoc...-sachs-2020-10
Those articles are a dime a dozen, especially right now. I am far from a specialist on the markets, I am just looking at it from a historical standpoint.

MFS published this last go around, and it is some of the basis of what I am talking about.

Spoiler!
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