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Old 05-18-2020, 01:24 PM   #1301
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Florida with 1,200 new cases over the weekend, the highest they've had in a month. I am completely shocked, no way did I ever think this would happen in a place that refused to believe in hundreds of years of proven science...
Are you saying Florida could turn into a hot spot? No, no, you see; I read this was not happening. Why is your information contradicting what I have read?

I am very confused.
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Old 05-18-2020, 01:32 PM   #1302
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I'm not one to defend FL here, but I don't see anything in their reopen plan from May 1-4 that would account for a big spike. Beaches were reopening in mid-April, which shouldn't be a trigger for an outbreak a month later.

Has their testing capacity gone up? CO had a fake spike a week ago when 5000 new tests were finally processed, even though those tests were spread across the prior month.
It's florida. They can fuck literally anything and everything up
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Old 05-18-2020, 01:37 PM   #1303
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Positivity rates are looking significantly better in some states at least. Hopefully this continues to be the case through August because we are going to need some sort of reliable treatment by fall. It’s difficult to envision a majority of the country being compliant with a second lockdown.
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Old 05-18-2020, 01:50 PM   #1304
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I'm not one to defend FL here, but I don't see anything in their reopen plan from May 1-4 that would account for a big spike. Beaches were reopening in mid-April, which shouldn't be a trigger for an outbreak a month later.

Has their testing capacity gone up? CO had a fake spike a week ago when 5000 new tests were finally processed, even though those tests were spread across the prior month.
I don't think it's that they just did something to cause it, but more
so the fact that as you mention they started re-opening too early and we're seeing that instead of the virus "dying out" eventually it will spread again.

It's the same people and argument for anti-vaxers who don't understand how science works.
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Old 05-18-2020, 01:54 PM   #1305
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There won't be a treatment (at least, not one that isn't "it might help if you're literally dying"). Fingers crossed for a sort-of-available vaccine that isn't constantly redirected to states that are nice to Trump. If you want things reopened (even as much as they are today), you really have to bank on the idea that it was far more widespread than anyone thought and thus far more people have antibodies than we realize, or that at some point the country will give up on the idea that it can protect vulnerable people at the expense of everyone else.

That said, I'm starting to believe that if schools don't reopen, nothing else really matters.

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I don't think it's that they just did something to cause it, but more
so the fact that as you mention they started re-opening too early and we're seeing that instead of the virus "dying out" eventually it will spread again.

It's the same people and argument for anti-vaxers who don't understand how science works.
I mean, of course it will spread again. Stopping it completely has never, ever been the aim of anything we've (Americans) done. The entire goal is to keep hospitalizations manageable so that the system isn't utterly overwhelmed. If you want it to stop spreading, you lock everyone in their house till December and forget about having a country afterwards.

If none of those new cases result in a hospitalization, then they're not relevant to anything. If the hospitalization rate stays low enough that there's still available capacity, then you have to decide how you want to balance the country's priorities, with regards to doing what you can to protect old people and doing what you can to keep people fed and housed (since there's no way on earth the Feds are going to help or DeSantis is going to do anything meaningful).

Last edited by njx9; 05-18-2020 at 01:58 PM.
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Old 05-18-2020, 02:33 PM   #1306
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Agreed but again it's the same with any disease, the whole point is to minimize the spread so that it doesn't get to the most vulnerable (old, people with health conditions or weaker immune systems). I don't really care whether or not those 1,200 are hospitalized if they end up further spreading it to people who then get hospitalized. That's 1,200 new contact points that can further spread it, which could have been much lower.

There's no stopping or killing it but we can at least try to slow it, which is not what Florida and other states are doing. If nothing else has been proven it's that the general public can't be trusted to be smart and safe.
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Old 05-18-2020, 02:54 PM   #1307
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There's no stopping or killing it but we can at least try to slow it, which is not what Florida and other states are doing.
Er, based on what? From what I can tell, FL is still largely on the same 're-opening' path that everyone else is - limited people in businesses and workplaces, no bars/restaurants, etc. I'm open if what I've read is incorrect or if people are ignoring the restrictions, but pretending like stay-at-home orders can be extended indefinitely is ridiculous.

I'm still not sure there's a definite cause in spikes that isn't just "we did more testing this week".
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Old 05-18-2020, 03:04 PM   #1308
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At least Orange County (Orlando) had a major spike in test results over the weekend which could cause some of this: 26 new cases out of 5,237 tests, for a positivity rate of 0.005%.

https://www.reddit.com/r/orlando/com...ospitalized_0/
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Old 05-18-2020, 03:08 PM   #1309
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Wasn’t Florida one the last state’s to commence a stay at home in the first place — and one of the first to start a reopen phase? It feels like they spent the least amount of time doing restrictions but that is nothing but conjecture
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Old 05-18-2020, 03:16 PM   #1310
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Statewide yes, but almost every county had stay at home orders before the state forced it
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Old 05-18-2020, 03:48 PM   #1311
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Er, based on what? From what I can tell, FL is still largely on the same 're-opening' path that everyone else is - limited people in businesses and workplaces, no bars/restaurants, etc. I'm open if what I've read is incorrect or if people are ignoring the restrictions, but pretending like stay-at-home orders can be extended indefinitely is ridiculous.

I'm still not sure there's a definite cause in spikes that isn't just "we did more testing this week".
No one has an indefinite stay at home order. It's been at most 2.5 months for most places, more likely 1.5-2 months. Anyone acting like this is unbelievable and unconscionable to make people stay at home this long is an idiot. I get it, people need to work, but again if we had competent governments and officials it would be much less of an issue. Re-opening quickly to fix the economy isn't a valid excuse for public health ignorance.

Desantis started closing things down relatively early, around mid-late March he told bars and restaurants to close. At that time they had 563 cases and 11 deaths reported. Local counties issued stay at home orders the last week of March, including Miami. By end of March there are over 6,000 cases and 85 deaths. A week later cases have doubled and deaths have tripled. Still no stay at home order.

2.5 weeks later there are 26K cases and almost 800 deaths. Desantis orders parks and beaches to be reopened "safely" because yeah that type of exponential growth means we should be going outside more.

May 4, just over a month after things started to shut down, Florida starts re-opening.

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/lo...us-in-florida/

I'm sure a lot of this is indeed a situation where the virus may not be spreading as fast as it seems with the numbers, but just lack of testing. But that furthers the point that if it is a lack of testing and we have no idea how many people actually have it, how in the world is it reasonable to think it's for sure safe to start re-opening?

And a 1.5 at most shut down is nothing. Yeah it sucks for businesses, but again unless there are guidelines to keep things safe (there aren't), do you really trust the general public to do the right thing in distancing, wearing masks, limiting numbers, etc.? My complaints are more a commentary on how dumb the general public is, specifically Floridians, and to a lesser extent the Florida authorities.
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Old 05-18-2020, 04:27 PM   #1312
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I'm sure a lot of this is indeed a situation where the virus may not be spreading as fast as it seems with the numbers, but just lack of testing. But that furthers the point that if it is a lack of testing and we have no idea how many people actually have it, how in the world is it reasonable to think it's for sure safe to start re-opening?
Sorry to snip, but this is the crux of most of the complaints I see. The number of cases is simply not at all relevant to anything. The curve that people are trying to bend is based on hospitalization utilization. If FL went from 1 case to 26k in 2 weeks, it really isn't relevant as long as they stayed in line with their maximum ICU/bed capacity during that time. If they think they can re-open and continue to stay below it, then that is currently the right choice. Vulnerable people have to understand that they need to take steps to protect themselves, and that relying on the rest of society to do it for them is unworkable.



Generally soapboxing, it's shitty, but our abject failure to respond to this early at a federal level has doomed some people, and will hurt others. There is no effective testing or tracing, and there won't be. There is no effective way to keep it out now that it's all but endemic. The only potential out on the horizon is a vaccine for a virus class that we've never had a successful vaccine for and that is almost certainly several months away from being able to see widespread distribution. Given that state budgets have been eviscerated and the feds won't help, given that workers need help and won't get it from literally anyone, and given that the disease is simply not an issue for the vast, vast majority of people who get it, states like FL seem to be making the cold decision that the best choice they have is to protect people from the economic effects and count on people to protect themselves to whatever level they feel they need from the health effects.

I'm not out here in support of the "let's pretend it's January again" morons carrying guns into capitol buildings and threatening governors, but I 100% support plans like Polis' to start to re-open the state, even though people are still getting sick and our testing capacity still sucks. It has to happen, and it makes no long term difference if it happens today, or we have the exact same conversation again in a month. Shit's still going to be a problem once flu season hits again, and we're likely going to have to re-close some stuff. More people are going to die either way.
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Old 05-18-2020, 04:46 PM   #1313
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In happier news, this is the most promising data I've seen from a trial so far:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/18/...mune-response/
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Old 05-18-2020, 04:57 PM   #1314
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@njx

I started responding but then started rambling in my response. I absolutely get what you're saying and yes a lot of the blame falls on our federal level refusing to do anything. I think you drastically underestimate the seriousness by claiming all that matters are hospitalizations, but in terms of short term, immediate focus I can agree to a point. The issue I believe is failure on many levels by people in charge to understand the issue is much larger than just who is currently dying, and to that extent the fact that many feel they have to choose to "save" the economy for certain individuals while sacrificing the life of other individuals. It's reprehensible.

And on a final note, for anyone who still has friends or anyone that is proclaiming this isn't a big deal, the flu kills more people each year...based on the data we have and believe relates to covid, the CDC is showing in 2 months covid deaths may have well surpassed 12 months of flu deaths in the US.
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Old 05-19-2020, 12:32 AM   #1315
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HEY! did you know if you wear a face mask you are NOT considerate! YOU ARE SCARED!!!!
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Old 05-19-2020, 01:18 AM   #1316
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HEY! did you know if you wear a face mask you are NOT considerate! YOU ARE SCARED!!!!
Fucking SHEEP
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Old 05-27-2020, 03:09 PM   #1317
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So what happened to Fauci? Haven't heard from him in a while.
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Old 05-27-2020, 04:29 PM   #1318
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https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...virus-covid-19
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Old 05-27-2020, 05:15 PM   #1319
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So what happened to Fauci? Haven't heard from him in a while.
americans born before 1956 account for 79% of the covid19 deaths. let those old bodies hit the floor. boomers amirite?

also, who's starting the babs gofundme
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Old 05-27-2020, 09:29 PM   #1320
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Should we honor Babs by doing a how did Babs die draft?
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